REPORT OF THE NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL'S 2020 PROJECT
REPORT OF THE NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL'S 2020 PROJECT
Really worth reading! Some of the things that had caught my attention.
http://www.cia.gov/nic/NIC_2020_project.html
Relative Certainties
* Globalization largely irreversible, likely to become less Westernized.
* Increasing number of global firms facilitate spread of new technologies.
* Aging populations in established powers.
* Energy supplies “in the ground” sufficient to meet global demand.
* US will remain single most powerful actor economically, technologically, militarily.
The world economy is likely to continue growing impressively: by 2020, it is projected to be about 80 percent larger than it was in 2000, and average per capita income will be roughly 50 percent higher.
The greatest benefits of globalization will accrue to countries and groups that can access and adopt new technologies.
Sharper demand-driven competition for resources, perhaps accompanied by a major disruption of oil supplies, is among the key uncertainties.
With the international system itself undergoing profound flux, some of the institutions that are charged with managing global problems may be overwhelmed by them. (read between the lines: US will undermine UN and Bolton has got this job. He sounds to be bitchy and unreasonable - the best candidate for job like that)
The transition will not be painless and will hit the middle classes of the developed world in particular, bringing more rapid job turnover and requiring professional retooling. Outsourcing on a large scale would strengthen the antiglobalization movement. Where these pressures lead will depend on how political leaders respond, how flexible labor markets become, and whether overall economic growth is sufficiently robust to absorb a growing number of displaced workers.
Weak governments, lagging economies, religious extremism, and youth bulges will align to create a perfect storm for internal conflict in certain regions.
The process of globalization, powerful as it is, could be substantially slowed or even stopped. Short of a major global conflict, which we regard as improbable, another large-scale development that we believe could stop globalization would be a pandemic. Some experts believe it is only a matter of time before a new pandemic appears, such as the 1918-1919 influenza virus that killed an estimated 20 million worldwide.
“Competitive pressures will force companies based in the advanced economies to 'outsource' many blue- and white-collar jobs.”
“Over the next 15 years, religious identity is likely to become an increasingly important factor in how people define themselves.”
Biotechnology: Panacea and Weapon
The biotechnological revolution is at a relatively early stage, and major advances in the
biological sciences coupled with information technology will continue to punctuate the
21st century. Research will continue to foster important discoveries in innovative
medical and public health technologies, environmental remediation, agriculture,
biodefense, and related fields.
On the positive side, biotechnology could be a “leveling” agent between developed and
developing nations, spreading dramatic economic and healthcare enhancements to the
neediest areas of the world.
• Possible breakthroughs in biomedicine such as an antiviral barrier will reduce the
spread of HIV/AIDS, helping to resolve the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Sub-
Saharan Africa and diminishing the potentially serious drag on economic growth in
developing countries like India and China. Biotechnology research and innovations
derived from continued US investments in Homeland Security-such as new
therapies that might block a pathogen's ability to enter the body-may eventually
have revolutionary healthcare applications that extend beyond protecting the US
from a terrorist attack.
• More developing countries probably will invest in indigenous biotechnology
developments, while competitive market pressures increasingly will induce firms and
research institutions to seek technically capable partners in developing countries.
However, even as the dispersion of biotechnology promises a means of improving the
quality of life, it also poses a major security concern. As biotechnology information
becomes more widely available, the number of people who can potentially misuse such
information and wreak widespread loss of life will increase. An attacker would appear to
have an easier job-because of the large array of possibilities available-than the
defender, who must prepare against them all. Moreover, as biotechnology advances
become more ubiquitous, stopping the progress of offensive BW programs will become
increasingly difficult. Over the next 10 to 20 years there is a risk that advances in
biotechnology will augment not only defensive measures but also offensive biological
warfare (BW) agent development and allow the creation of advanced biological agents
designed to target specific systems-human, animal, or crop.
Lastly, some biotechnology techniques that may facilitate major improvements in health
also will spur serious ethical and privacy concerns over such matters as comprehensive
genetic profiling; stem cell research; and the possibility of discovering DNA signatures
that indicate predisposition for disease, certain cognitive abilities, or anti-social
behavior.
Really worth reading! Some of the things that had caught my attention.
http://www.cia.gov/nic/NIC_2020_project.html
Relative Certainties
* Globalization largely irreversible, likely to become less Westernized.
* Increasing number of global firms facilitate spread of new technologies.
* Aging populations in established powers.
* Energy supplies “in the ground” sufficient to meet global demand.
* US will remain single most powerful actor economically, technologically, militarily.
The world economy is likely to continue growing impressively: by 2020, it is projected to be about 80 percent larger than it was in 2000, and average per capita income will be roughly 50 percent higher.
The greatest benefits of globalization will accrue to countries and groups that can access and adopt new technologies.
Sharper demand-driven competition for resources, perhaps accompanied by a major disruption of oil supplies, is among the key uncertainties.
With the international system itself undergoing profound flux, some of the institutions that are charged with managing global problems may be overwhelmed by them. (read between the lines: US will undermine UN and Bolton has got this job. He sounds to be bitchy and unreasonable - the best candidate for job like that)
The transition will not be painless and will hit the middle classes of the developed world in particular, bringing more rapid job turnover and requiring professional retooling. Outsourcing on a large scale would strengthen the antiglobalization movement. Where these pressures lead will depend on how political leaders respond, how flexible labor markets become, and whether overall economic growth is sufficiently robust to absorb a growing number of displaced workers.
Weak governments, lagging economies, religious extremism, and youth bulges will align to create a perfect storm for internal conflict in certain regions.
The process of globalization, powerful as it is, could be substantially slowed or even stopped. Short of a major global conflict, which we regard as improbable, another large-scale development that we believe could stop globalization would be a pandemic. Some experts believe it is only a matter of time before a new pandemic appears, such as the 1918-1919 influenza virus that killed an estimated 20 million worldwide.
“Competitive pressures will force companies based in the advanced economies to 'outsource' many blue- and white-collar jobs.”
“Over the next 15 years, religious identity is likely to become an increasingly important factor in how people define themselves.”
Biotechnology: Panacea and Weapon
The biotechnological revolution is at a relatively early stage, and major advances in the
biological sciences coupled with information technology will continue to punctuate the
21st century. Research will continue to foster important discoveries in innovative
medical and public health technologies, environmental remediation, agriculture,
biodefense, and related fields.
On the positive side, biotechnology could be a “leveling” agent between developed and
developing nations, spreading dramatic economic and healthcare enhancements to the
neediest areas of the world.
• Possible breakthroughs in biomedicine such as an antiviral barrier will reduce the
spread of HIV/AIDS, helping to resolve the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Sub-
Saharan Africa and diminishing the potentially serious drag on economic growth in
developing countries like India and China. Biotechnology research and innovations
derived from continued US investments in Homeland Security-such as new
therapies that might block a pathogen's ability to enter the body-may eventually
have revolutionary healthcare applications that extend beyond protecting the US
from a terrorist attack.
• More developing countries probably will invest in indigenous biotechnology
developments, while competitive market pressures increasingly will induce firms and
research institutions to seek technically capable partners in developing countries.
However, even as the dispersion of biotechnology promises a means of improving the
quality of life, it also poses a major security concern. As biotechnology information
becomes more widely available, the number of people who can potentially misuse such
information and wreak widespread loss of life will increase. An attacker would appear to
have an easier job-because of the large array of possibilities available-than the
defender, who must prepare against them all. Moreover, as biotechnology advances
become more ubiquitous, stopping the progress of offensive BW programs will become
increasingly difficult. Over the next 10 to 20 years there is a risk that advances in
biotechnology will augment not only defensive measures but also offensive biological
warfare (BW) agent development and allow the creation of advanced biological agents
designed to target specific systems-human, animal, or crop.
Lastly, some biotechnology techniques that may facilitate major improvements in health
also will spur serious ethical and privacy concerns over such matters as comprehensive
genetic profiling; stem cell research; and the possibility of discovering DNA signatures
that indicate predisposition for disease, certain cognitive abilities, or anti-social
behavior.
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